Road Safety Indicators - are they comparable.md 32 KB
Ajakiri Journal of Baltic Studies
https://www.tandfonline.com/toc/rbal20/current
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- abstract (100 words)
- keywords (max 8)
- main text introduction
- materials and methods
- results
- discussion
- acknowledgments
- declaration of interest statement
- references
- appendices (as appropriate)
- table(s) with caption(s) (on individual pages)
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Discussion
The results of this analyze show clearly that indicators used for road safety comparison are misleading when treating scale-based countries with different size in population. For example, an annual change of one road death represents 9.1 % in Malta, 1.5% in Estonia, 0.4% in Finland, 0.1% in the UK and 0.03% in Germany.
Furthermore, an annual change of road deaths by 1 per cent does not mean a worsened situation in Malta or Estonia (less than one death), while representing 18 additional deaths in UK or 35 in Germany, respectively. This causes misleading perceptions to analyse such data based on numerical data.
We compare countries based on a number of road deaths, because the numbers of fatal road accidents is not available for most of the countries. This could be helpful while analyzing road safety and could be a subject for further research.
We admit that there are essential differences between small and big countries, but it is not straightforward where to draw the line between small and big ones. average annual change of road deaths (percentage) over the period of 2010-2015 (table 7) show that ...
The data of smaller countries, with population up to 5 million are much more dispersed compared to the data of bigger countries (figure 8).
Thus, for more consistent results, we propose to group the countries as following: (1) up to 5 million inhabitants as the smallest countries, (2) 5-10 million a small countries and (3) over 10 million as big countries. This could avoid the countries´scale effect for the results.
Graph 1 : proposed classification for countries to analyze road fatality rates
Authors´elaboration based on the results of the paper.
Table . Road deaths per million inhabitants, 2015
Figure 1. Distribution of road deaths (n=28), 2015
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Conclusions
We have shown that some road safety indicators may be misleading, when not considering the country's population. Furthermore, we show that also statistical significance should be taken account, especially when comparing countries of different population. We recommend to classify the countries according to the size of the population (<5, 5-10: 50>..)to avoid the countries´scale effect in the results.
Crashes involving more than one participant are the most serious ones, reflecting also a serious reflection from the public. Unfortunately, this data is often missing and is not represented in the international databases. Therefore we porpose to use the model to predict the missing data. This mdel will be useful for the further testing.
European Green Deal has set challenging goals in its strategy for sustainable and smart mobility for enhancing transport safety and security. The paper supports the goal and for further fatality rate predictions matter a lot.
Acknowledgments
Declaration of interest statement
References
Australian Road Deaths Database [WWW Document], n.d. URL https://bitre.gov.au/statistics/safety/fatal_road_crash_database.aspx (accessed 8.31.17).
Ranter, H., n.d. Aviation Safety Network > Statistics > By period > fatal airliner (14+ passengers) hull-loss accidents [WWW Document]. URL https://aviation-safety.net/statistics/period/stats.php?cat=A1 (accessed 8.31.17).
Road Safety Data - Datasets [WWW Document], n.d. URL https://data.gov.uk/dataset/road-accidents-safety-data (accessed 8.31.17).
Road safety statistics at regional level - Statistics Explained [WWW Document], n.d. URL http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Road_safety_statistics_at_regional_level (accessed 7.7.17).
Teeregister [WWW Document], 2017. . Maanteeamet. URL https://www.mnt.ee/et/tee/teeregister (accessed 1.22.17).
Testing_for_statistically_significant_changes.pdf [WWW Document],
- URL https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/437785/Testing_for_statistically_significant_changes.pdf (accessed 2.24.17).
Viide ACTA artiklile
appendices (as appropriate)
table(s) with caption(s) (on individual pages)
figures; figure captions (as a list)
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1: Road deaths per million of population (2015). Source: ETSC
Table 1: The registered road deaths in Europe (ETSC)
Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Norway NO 210 168 145 187 147 117
Estonia EE 79 101 87 81 78 67
Ireland IE 212 186 162 188 193 166
Latvia LV 218 179 177 179 212 188
Lithuania LT 299 297 301 258 264 235
Poland PL 3 907 4 189 3 571 3 357 3 202 2 938
Sweden SE 266 319 285 260 270 259
Denmark DK 255 220 167 191 183 178
Portugal PT 937 891 718 637 638 627
Spain ES 2 478 2 060 1 903 1 680 1 688 1 688
Greece EL 1 258 1 141 988 879 795 805
Italy IT 4 114 3 860 3 753 3 401 3 381 3 430
France FR 3 992 3 963 3 653 3 268 3 384 3 461
UK UK 1 905 1 960 1 802 1 769 1 807 1 854
Luxembourg LU 32 33 34 45 35 36
Germany DE 3 651 4 009 3 601 3 340 3 368 3 475
Hungary HU 740 638 605 591 626 647
Belgium BE 841 862 770 724 727 755
Switzerland CH 327 320 339 269 243 253
Romania RO 2 377 2 018 2 042 1 861 1 818 1 893
Slovakia SK 353 324 295 223 258 274
Czech Rep. CZ 802 773 742 654 688 738
Bulgaria BG 776 658 605 601 655 708
Netherlands NL 640 661 650 570 570 620
Malta MT 15 17 9 18 10 11
Austria AT 552 523 531 455 430 475
Slovenia SI 138 141 130 125 108 120
Serbia RS 660 731 688 650 536 601
Croatia HR 426 418 393 368 308 348
Finland FI 272 292 255 258 229 260
Israel IL 352 341 263 277 279 322
Cyprus CY 60 71 51 44 45 57
Table 1: The annual changes of road deaths in Europe (percentage) [[Statistical significance check of road fatalities in Malta|Statistical significance check of road fatalities in Malta]]
Country 2011/2010 2012/2011 2013/2012 2014/2013 2015/2014 Norway -20% -14% 29% -21% -20% Estonia 28% -14% -7% -4% -14% Ireland -12% -13% 16% 3% -14% Latvia -18% -1% 1% 18% -11% Lithuania -1% 1% -14% 2% -11% Poland 7% -15% -6% -5% -8% Sweden 20% -11% -9% 4% -4% Denmark -14% -24% 14% -4% -3% Portugal -5% -19% -11% 0% -2% Spain -17% -8% -12% 0% 0% Greece -9% -13% -11% -10% 1% Italy -6% -3% -9% -1% 1% France -1% -8% -11% 4% 2% UK 3% -8% -2% 2% 3% Luxembourg 3% 3% 32% -22% 3% Germany 10% -10% -7% 1% 3% Hungary -14% -5% -2% 6% 3% Belgium 2% -11% -6% 0% 4% Switzerland -2% 6% -21% -10% 4% Romania -15% 1% -9% -2% 4% Slovakia -8% -9% -24% 16% 6% Czech Rep. -4% -4% -12% 5% 7% Bulgaria -15% -8% -1% 9% 8% Netherlands 3% -2% -12% 0% 9% Malta 13% -47% 100% -44% 10% Austria -5% 2% -14% -5% 10% Slovenia 2% -8% -4% -14% 11% Serbia 11% -6% -6% -18% 12% Croatia -2% -6% -6% -16% 13% Finland 7% -13% 1% -11% 14% Israel -3% -23% 5% 1% 15% Cyprus 18% -28% -14% 2% 27%
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Figure 2: Maximum changes between two years in 2010-2015. Source: ETSC
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Figure 3: Annual change of road deaths in Estonia
Table 1: The number of annual fatal airliner (14+ passengers) hull-loss accidents and fatalities.
Year Accidents Fatalities 2016 17 258 2015 14 186 2014 20 691 2013 29 265 2012 23 475 2011 36 524 2010 32 943 2009 31 760 2008 33 588 2007 31 773 2006 33 905 2005 40 1075 2004 34 459 2003 33 703 2002 43 1112 2001 35 801 2000 43 1148
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Figure 4: The number fatalities and fatal road accidents per year in Estonia
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Figure 5: Road deaths in Estonia, 1991-2016 (ERA)
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Figure 6: Daily number of fatal road crashes Estonia 2015.
Table 1: Results of$\chi^{2}$test, Estonian data 2015.
Number of daily fatal accidents Observed Expected Pearson residuals 0 309 309 0.01 1 51 52 -0.085 2 5 4 0.331
Table 1: Change of average fatality rate after the increase of one death (dataset of 2015)
Country Road deaths Population Road deaths per million inhabitants Road deaths +1 Road deaths +1 / per million inhabitants Difference Malta 11 429 344 25.62 12 27.95 9.09 Luxembourg 36 562 958 63.95 37 65.72 2.77 Cyprus 57 847 008 67.30 58 68.48 1.75 Estonia 67 1 314 870 50.96 68 51.72 1.49 Slovenia 120 2 062 874 58.17 121 58.66 0.84 Norway 117 5 166 493 22.65 118 22.84 0.84 Ireland 162 4 628 949 35.00 163 35.21 0.60 Denmark 178 5 659 715 31.45 179 31.63 0.57 Latvia 188 1 986 096 94.66 189 95.16 0.53 Lithuania 242 2 921 262 82.84 243 83.18 0.41 Switzerland 253 8 237 666 30.71 254 30.83 0.39 Finland 266 5 471 753 48.61 267 48.80 0.39 Sweden 259 9 747 355 26.57 260 26.67 0.38 Slovakia 310 5 421 349 57.18 311 57.37 0.33 Croatia 348 4 225 316 82.36 349 82.60 0.29 Austria 479 8 576 261 55.85 480 55.97 0.22 Hungary 644 9 855 571 65.34 645 65.45 0.17 Netherlands 621 16 900 726 36.74 622 36.80 0.16 Portugal 624 10 374 822 60.15 625 60.24 0.15 Czech Rep. 738 10 538 275 70.03 739 70.13 0.14 Bulgaria 708 7 202 198 98.30 709 98.44 0.14 Spain 1 689 46 449 565 36.36 1 690 36.38 0.06 Romania 1 893 19 870 647 95.27 1 894 95.32 0.05 Poland 2 938 38 005 614 77.30 2 939 77.33 0.04 France 3 459 66 488 186 52.02 3 460 52.04 0.04 UK 1 804 64 875 165 27.81 1 805 27.82 0.04 Germany 3 459 81 197 537 42.6 3 460 42.61 0.02 Italy 3 428 60 795 612 56.39 3 429 56.4 0.02 EU 25 098 499 813 187 50.21 25 099 50.22 0.02
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Figure 7: Number of fatal road accidents. Estonia 2010-2015.
Table 1: Data used for analysis
+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | * | **Y | * | **Fa | **R | **Po | **D | A | | *Coun | ear | *Road | tal** | ate** | pulat | eaths | ccide | | try** | | dea | | | ion** | per 1 | nts** | | | | ths** | r | | | mill | | | | | | oad | | | ion** | **per | | | | | | | | | 1 | | | | | **a | | | inh | mill | | | | | ccide | | | abita | ion | | | | | nts** | | | nts** | | | | | | | | | | inh | | | | | | | | | abita | | | | | | | | | nts | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | AUS | 2015 | 1 205 | 1 101 | 1.09 | 23 | 50.63 | 46.26 | | | | | | | 799 | | | | | | | | | 556 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | | 2014 | 1 150 | 1 050 | 1.10 | 23 | 48.99 | 44.73 | | | | | | | 474 | | | | | | | | | 668 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | | 2013 | 1 187 | 1 101 | 1.08 | 23 | 51.27 | 47.56 | | | | | | | 150 | | | | | | | | | 729 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | | 2012 | 1 300 | 1 190 | 1.09 | 22 | 56.96 | 52.14 | | | | | | | 821 | | | | | | | | | 849 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | | 2011 | 1 277 | 1 151 | 1.11 | 22 | 56.81 | 51.2 | | | | | | | 479 | | | | | | | | | 799 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | | 2010 | 1 353 | 1 233 | 1.10 | 22 | 61.17 | 55.74 | | | | | | | 120 | | | | | | | | | 064 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | EE | 2015 | 67 | 61 | 1.10 | 1 314 | 50.96 | 46.39 | | | | | | | 870 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | | 2014 | 78 | 72 | 1.08 | 1 315 | 59.28 | 54.72 | | | | | | | 819 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | | 2013 | 81 | 74 | 1.09 | 1 320 | 61.36 | 56.05 | | | | | | | 174 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | | 2012 | 87 | 82 | 1.06 | 1 325 | 65.65 | 61.88 | | | | | | | 217 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | | 2011 | 101 | 93 | 1.09 | 1 329 | 75.96 | 69.94 | | | | | | | 660 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | | 2010 | 79 | 70 | 1.13 | 1 333 | 59.25 | 52.5 | | | | | | | 290 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | UK | 2015 | 1 730 | 1 616 | 1.07 | 64 | 26.67 | 24.91 | | | | | | | 875 | | | | | | | | | 165 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | | 2014 | 1 775 | 1 658 | 1.07 | 64 | 27.58 | 25.76 | | | | | | | 351 | | | | | | | | | 155 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | | 2013 | 1 713 | 1 608 | 1.07 | 63 | 26.81 | 25.16 | | | | | | | 905 | | | | | | | | | 297 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | | 2012 | 1 754 | 1 637 | 1.07 | 63 | 27.62 | 25.78 | | | | | | | 495 | | | | | | | | | 303 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | | 2011 | 1 901 | 1 797 | 1.06 | 63 | 30.16 | 28.51 | | | | | | | 022 | | | | | | | | | 532 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | | 2010 | 1 850 | 1 731 | 1.07 | 62 | 29.6 | 27.69 | | | | | | | 510 | | | | | | | | | 197 | | | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
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Figure 7: Road fatality rate vs Rate
Table 1: Annual average change in road deaths and country's population
+-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Country | Population | Average annual change of road | | | | deaths (2010-2015) | | | (millions) | | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Malta | 0,43 | 6,4% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Luxembourg | 0,56 | 3,8% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Cyprus | 0,85 | 1,0% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Estonia | 1,31 | -2,2% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Slovenia | 2,06 | -2,6% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Norway | 5,17 | -9,2% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Ireland | 4,63 | -4,0% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Denmark | 5,66 | -6,2% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Latvia | 1,99 | -2,2% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Lithuania | 2,92 | -4,6% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Switzerland | 8,24 | -4,6% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Finland | 5,47 | -0,4% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Sweden | 9,75 | 0,0% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Slovakia | 5,42 | -3,8% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Croatia | 4,23 | -3,4% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Austria | 8,58 | -2,4% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Hungary | 9,86 | -2,4% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Netherlands | 16,9 | -0,4% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Portugal | 10,37 | -7,4% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Czech Rep. | 10,54 | -1,6% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Bulgaria | 7,2 | -1,4% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Spain | 46,45 | -7,4% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Romania | 19,87 | -4,2% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Poland | 38,01 | -5,4% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | France | 66,49 | -2,8% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | UK | 64,88 | -0,4% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Germany | 81,2 | -0,6% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+ | Italy | 60,8 | -3,6% | +-------------+----------------+-------------------------------------+
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Figure 8: Annual average change in road deaths and country's population (data of table 7).
Table 1: Statistical significance check of road fatalities in Malta
Table 2: Statistical significance check of road fatalities in Germany
| Year | Popu-lation | Fat. | Popu-lation prev. Year | Fat. prev. year | Fat. diff. | P | Fat. mean |
Z | p-value |
| 2015 | 81197537 | 3459 | 80767463 | 3377 | 82 | 0.0000422 | 3427 | 0.77 | 0.4413 |
| 2014 | 80767463 | 3377 | 80523746 | 3339 | 38 | 0.0000416 | 3363 | 0.34 | 0.733857 |
| 2013 | 80523746 | 3339 | 80327900 | 3600 | -261 | 0.0000431 | 3474 | -3.23 | 0.001238 |
| 2012 | 80327900 | 3600 | 80222065 | 4009 | -409 | 0.0000474 | 3807 | -4.75 | < 0.00001 |
| 2011 | 80222065 | 4009 | 81802257 | 3648 | 361 | 0.0000473 | 3791 | 4.98 | < 0.00001 |
| 2010 | 81802257 | 3648 | 82002356 | 4152 | -504 | 0.0000476 | 3895 | -5.60 | < 0.00001 |
| 2009 | 82002356 | 4152 | 82217837 | 4477 | -325 | 0.0000525 | 4309 | -3.38 | 0.000725 |
| 2008 | 82217837 | 4477 | 82314906 | 4949 | -472 | 0.0000573 | 4710 | -4.80 | < 0.00001 |
| 2007 | 82314906 | 4949 | 82437995 | 5091 | -142 | 0.0000609 | 5016 | -1.34 | 0.180245 |
References:
Anon., kuupäev puudub Australian Road Deaths Database [WWW Document]. [Võrgumaterjal]\ Available at: [https://bitre.gov.au/statistics/safety/fatal_road_crash_database.aspx]{.underline} [Kasutatud 31 8 2017].Anon., kuupäev puudub Road Safety Data - Datasets [WWW Document]. [Võrgumaterjal]\ Available at: [https://data.gov.uk/dataset/road-accidents-safety-data]{.underline} [Kasutatud 31 8 2017].Anon., kuupäev puudub Road safety statistics at regional level - Statistics Explained [WWW Document]. [Võrgumaterjal]\ Available at: [http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Road_safety_statistics_at_regional_level]{.underline} [Kasutatud 17 7 2017].Anon., kuupäev puudub Teeregister [WWW Document], 2017. [Võrgumaterjal]\ Available at: [https://www.mnt.ee/et/tee/teeregister]{.underline} [Kasutatud 22 1 2017].Commission, E., 2020. Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy -- putting European transport on track for the future, Brussels: s.n.GOV.UK, kuupäev puudub Testing for statistically significant changes in road accident and casualty numbers. [Võrgumaterjal]\ Available at: [https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/437785/Testing_for_statistically_significant_changes.pdf]{.underline} [Kasutatud 24 2 2017].Kubjas, A. & Antov, D., 2019. Indirect method for estimating traffic flow of local roads. Acta Architecturae Naturalis, Issue 5, pp. 1-14.
[^1]: Australian Road Deaths Database," n.d., "Road Safety Data -
Datasets," n.d., "Teeregister," 2017