Obsidian/Doktoritöö/260215 - Vilnius/Struktuur/16. Conclusions.md

6. Conclusion

This study demonstrates that a multi‑indicator framework—integrating road‑fatality rate, total fatalities, fatal accidents, and overall accident counts—provides a substantially more accurate assessment of road traffic safety than the conventional single‑rate approach (ΔCFI = 0.12; ΔRMSEA = –0.057). Path analysis of Estonia’s 2010–2018 daily traffic data revealed that accident severity mediates the relationship between traffic volume and overall safety far more strongly than accident frequency (indirect effect via fatalities = 0.22, p < 0.001 vs. indirect effect via total accidents = 0.13, p = 0.003). Consequently, policies that target reductions in severe crashes are likely to yield greater gains toward the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.6 than interventions focused solely on lowering overall crash counts.

Policy Implications

1. Prioritise severity‑reduction measures

   • Expand intelligent speed‑control zones and dynamic speed limits, especially on high‑volume corridors where severe crashes are most likely to occur.
     
   • Implement mandatory post‑crash medical screening for drivers involved in fatal or near‑fatal collisions to identify risk factors (e.g., alcohol, fatigue) that can be addressed through targeted enforcement.

2. Risk‑based infrastructure investment

   • Use the multi‑indicator RTS index to rank road segments by combined severity and frequency scores; allocate funding first to high‑risk locations for geometric redesigns (e.g., median barriers, roundabouts) and improved lighting.

3. Data‑driven monitoring & reporting

   • Adopt the composite RTS dashboard as a standard performance metric in national traffic safety reports, ensuring that progress toward SDG 3.6 is tracked through both frequency and severity dimensions.
     

4. Behavioural interventions aligned with severity risk
   – Develop public‑awareness campaigns emphasizing the disproportionate societal cost of severe crashes (loss of life, long‑term disability) rather than focusing only on total crash numbers.
   – Introduce incentive programmes for fleet operators that reward reductions in fatality‑linked outcomes (e.g., insurance premium discounts tied to zero‑fatality years).

5. Legislative alignment

   • Amend existing road safety legislation to require periodic reporting of the four RTS indicators and to mandate evidence‑based interventions whenever the composite index exceeds predefined thresholds.

By reorienting traffic‑safety strategies toward severity mitigation, policymakers can achieve more efficient reductions in road‑traffic deaths, thereby accelerating Estonia’s—and other nations’—progress toward halving global traffic fatalities by 2030.